Thailand’s economic recovery is set to be delayed by a surge in Covid-19 cases and renewed lockdown measures in April and May.
Thailand’s economy has been gradually recovering from the pandemic shock in H120, on the back of fiscal stimulus and a relaxing of domestic mobility restrictions, growing 0.2% q-o-q in Q121. Indeed, we expected the economic output to only recover to its pre-pandemic level by 2022, following the 6.1% contraction in 2020.
However, with the economy facing an aggressive rise in Covid-19 cases once again (see chart below) and policymakers tightening restrictions on activities, we believe the recovery will face a setback. Officials have forced the closure of restaurants, hotels and entertainment venues, with the severity of measures differing among provinces and varying in lengths of duration.
While not as severe as measures imposed a year prior, the disruptions will send economic activity into contraction once again … Read the rest